Breakfast with Dave
Economic Commentary -- December 2, 2021

MORNING MACRO/MARKET MUSINGS

• From risk-on to risk-off to risk-on again — U.S. futures are in the green this morning, but European markets are down more than 1% and Asia was decidedly mixed

ISM REVIEW — TO CATCH A BREAK!

• The ISM manufacturing PMI that came out for November was a breath of fresh air, especially from a supply chain bottleneck standpoint — the headline came in roughly as expected at 61.1 from 60.8 in October

CONSTRUCTION SOFTENS

• U.S. construction spending disappointed, only eking out a 0.2% gain in October at a time when the consensus was looking for a 0.4% uptick — and this followed a 0.1% September dip

BEIGE BOOK – SOME SIGNS OF A THAW, PERHAPS?

• While the Beige Book did find a spreading out of wage and price pressures in general, as was the message with the November ISM manufacturing PMI, there are some signs of a thaw emerging

ADP EMPLOYMENT RIPS YET AGAIN

• The ADP private sector employment number came in solid for the month of November at +534k, a touch above the consensus estimate of a 525k uptick